HOUSTON — As Hurricane Beryl is over the popular vacation destination spots in the Yucatan Peninsula, it is weakening. However, there are two factors involved in how much Beryl could weaken as it travels over land and emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Editor's note: This story was published the afternoon of July 4. You can see the latest on the changing on this page.
The first factor is what is happening in the atmosphere. Beryl is coming into contact with strong upper-level winds creating wind shear. Wind shear is the change in wind speed with height. This is the reason why Beryl has weakened from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 2 as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
As of 2 p.m. Thursday, the forecast track of Beryl has the storm making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near the vacation destination cities of Cozumel and Tulum. Once the center of the hurricane comes in contact with land, the storm is immediately cut off from its fuel energy source of warm ocean waters. Also, frictional interaction between the storm and land plays a role in weakening the system. This land-sea interaction is the reason why Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before reemerging in the Gulf of Mexico.
As with all weather forecasts, a slight degree of uncertainty exists with Beryl's forecast track. If the storm takes a more northern track north of Cozumel, the storm will have less interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula landmass, and it could take longer before it weakens into a tropical storm. Also, we are waiting for Beryl to reemerge on the other side of the Yucatan Peninsula before we have a better understanding of how far north or south along the south Texas and Mexico coasts.
As of Thursday at 2 p.m., the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the storm briefly strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane by 7 a.m. Monday before making landfall somewhere along the south Texas/north Mexican coast.
