HOUSTON — As Hurricane Beryl was approaching the coast of Jamaica as a major Category 4 storm, meteorologists are grappling with uncertainty about its intensity and track.
The storm is likely to move into northeast Mexico or far South Texas, but the direction the storm will take is what’s in question. The uncertainty stems from changes in the storm's steering currents, which will weaken after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, according to National Weather Service Houston Meteorologist Dan Reilly.
KHOU 11 Meteorologist Pat Cavlin sat down with Reilly to talk more about where Beryl could be headed, how it could affect Houston if it pushes into the Gulf and why it’s important for you to stay alert, even during the holiday weekend.
“After it crosses the Yucatan, the steering currents become lighter. And in a situation like that, subtle features, can cause it to maybe tug north or continue to drift west,” Reilly said. “So I think it's a matter of the models not having a good handle on some of these subtle features or at least treating them differently.”
While Beryl’s uncertain track is why we need to stay vigilant, the hope is data from Hurricane Hunters and NWS over the next few days will help models narrow down a more accurate forecast.
Currently, two primary scenarios are being considered: a weakening storm that tracks further south into Mexico or a stronger storm that tracks slightly further north with the potential to affect southern Texas.
“You know, I would say, a weakening storm and one that tracks a bit further south, would be a good trend for us, with a longer track across the Yucatan,” Reilly said. “You know, that might favor the more southern solution. That then just takes it straight into Mexico. If we see the storm maintain strength, and maybe track even in the near term, a little bit further north, you know, that could have implications down the road for maybe a further north track, even in south Texas. So you know, we're just going to have to keep an eye on it and, you know, I would expect over the next day or so for the models to become more clustered. But for now, we just have to keep monitoring.”
Reilly and Cavlin said to check the forecast daily as we watch Beryl. Check once when you wake up and again before bed. Now is the time to review evacuation plans if you live on the coast and hurricane/emergency plans if you live farther inland.
Hurricane Season links