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Breaking down early voting numbers ahead of Election Day

After two weeks of early voting, 855,711 people cast their ballots in Harris County. That's a new record in Harris County, breaking a 2010 record when 798,995 votes were cast.

Campaigns are doing whatever they can to earn last-minute votes with Election Day approaching.

Early voting numbers are giving us a better idea of how this election may play out.

After two weeks of early voting, 855,711 people cast their ballots in Harris County. That's a new record in Harris County, breaking a 2010 record when 798,995 votes were cast.

It's a historic turnout.

KHOU political analyst Bob Stein said his research shows the number of voters under 35 went up every day during early voting. That's a positive sign for Democrats and should be concerning for local GOP candidates.

"I think it should keep Republicans up, especially Republican judges down ballot," Stein said. "Even County Judge Ed Emmett, who usually has crossover appeal. But when you to get to 1.3 million votes, I think he's in trouble."

Stein said this turnout is being driven primarily by the Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O'Rourke.

O'Rourke appears to be mobilizing a larger percentage of young and non-white voters. That's the case in Harris County and other major metro areas. The more they vote, the tighter this race becomes.

Stein said the data suggests O'Rourke could end up with more votes in Harris County than Hillary Clinton did in a presidential year.

Here's why that matters.

"What Beto has done is mobilize essentially a latent voter, a lazy voter who's never come out before," Stein said. "And they're coming out with a vengeance."

Stein believes the Cruz campaign can't be happy with the early voting data out there, but Republican campaigns across the state are confident more of their voters will come out on Tuesday.

"He needs to stop the bleeding," said Stein. "My suspicion is there are Republicans who are not able to vote for Ted Cruz."

At the end of the day, Stein said this is still Cruz's race to lose, but weeks ago Stein said the data showed there was no way O'Rourke could win in Texas. Stein said the data now show it's a possibility.

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