HOUSTON — The state climatologist said Texans should brace for more triple-digit temperature days and expect a higher risk of flooding and storm surge around Houston over the next decade.
Those are some of the findings in a recently released report predicting climate trends through 2036, the state’s bicentennial.
"The things we know, we can plan for," Texas State Climatologist Dr. John Neilsen-Gammon said during an interview Wednesday from his office at Texas A&M University in College Station. "Things we don’t know, we can allow for different possibilities."
Nielsen-Gammon was appointed the state's climatologist in 2000 by then-Governor George W. Bush.
Recently, the Texas A&M atmospheric science professor authored an updated report predicting climate trends through 2036, the state’s bicentennial. His team analyzed data from 1900 through 2023.
"'Climate change is real' is an obvious takeaway," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said.
He said it’s driven by greenhouse gas increases, and the pace aligns with climate model projections.
"That obviously gives us confidence that the changes we’ve seen are actually part of a long-term trend, rather than just natural variability," Nielsen-Gammon said.
He said his findings on the number of 100-degree days surprised him most.
"(It) more than doubled since the 1970s and is still increasing," he said. "So, that the total change is probably gonna be quadrupling by the year 2036."
The report also predicts more intense rainfall and more flooding in cities.
"Take any flood that you had historically and add 25% more water to it," Nielsen-Gammon said.
The report highlights Houston as a hotspot for more frequent flooding. Closer to the coast, rising sea levels and sinking land mean higher hurricane risk.
"Every foot and a half of sea level rise increases the risk of storm surge inland by about a factor of two," Nielsen-Gammon said.
Mayor John Whitmire said Wednesday that Houston is better prepared now than it was when Hurricane Harvey hit.
"This recent windstorm, and probably a tornado, across Houston just showed us you gotta be ready 24/7," Whitmire said.
Nielsen-Gammon’s team plans to speak to state lawmakers Monday about likely impacts on the power grid over the next several months. That hearing before the Texas House State Affairs committee starts at 9 a.m. at the State Capitol.