Tropical development is likely by the end of the week near Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is forecast to move northeast and bring rain and gusty winds to the southern part of the state by Friday or Saturday.
The system is not a threat to the Texas Gulf Coast.
A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico means wind shear and dry air will keep the system weak and mainly a rainmaker for Florida.
If Agatha's remnants actually develop, it will take on the name Alex.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK: NOAA's outlook calls for 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes in total.
“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”
Looking deeper into the season, the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch with La Niña potentially emerging through November. La Niña can help make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclones to form the Atlantic, and less conducive in the Eastern Pacific. If 2021 is any indicator so far of what lies ahead this season, it could continue to be an active year.
Hurricane season is here and it's time to be prepared if you aren't already. Make sure you have had conversations with your loved ones about what you would do if a storm were to threaten.
This year, NOAA released the new seasonal averages for the Atlantic basin. According to the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020, the new averages include 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The averages from 1951-1980, were 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.
Hurricane safety and preparedness are critically important even before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
