HOUSTON — There is a reason the Atlantic hurricane season 'officially' lasts all the way through the month of November. Even though we're getting deep into the fall season, sea surface temperatures can and often do remain warm enough for tropical development. In fact, it wasn't' that long ago when in 2009 hurricane 'Ida' formed in the western Caribbean Sea before moving north into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 2 hurricane, making landfall on the Alabama coast as a strong tropical storm. That's the latest Gulf of Mexico hurricane on record.
So it doesn't come as too much of a surprise that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean that has a high chance of development over the next seven days. It's a long way from us, but if something does form there, it would be right on the doorstep to the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasting the track of a tropical system can be very tricky this time of year. That's because we're transitioning from summer to winter in the northern hemisphere. Cold fronts and their associated mid latitude troughs reach deeper south and become more frequent visitors. Each time a front approaches, it has an impact on the motion of the storm. We have several such fronts moving in over the next 10-14 days.
This is not something we here in Houston need to be worried about over the weekend. HOWEVER, it absolutely is required that you stay aware of the forecast each day. IF a storm were to form and head for the Gulf of Mexico, it would be toward the middle of next week. Watch the weather with us at least once a day through the weekend and into next week. That way no one gets caught off guard if something does decide to head our way.