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Tropical Storm Rafael forms in Caribbean, expected to reach hurricane strength on Tuesday

Rafael is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday as a hurricane.

HOUSTON — The KHOU 11 Weather Team is keeping a close eye on what is now Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean.

The storm became a tropical depression Monday morning before strengthening into a tropical storm. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday.

As of the 10 Monday National Hurricane Center update, Rafael was moving north-northwest at about 12 mph and was expected to turn to the northwest in the coming days. Maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph and the storm was expected to rapidly strengthen over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Credit: KHOU

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael is expected to become a hurricane when it goes over the Cayman Islands Tuesday evening, bringing hurricane-force winds along with a dangerous storm surge. Tropical storm-force winds are expected in Jamaica Monday night and Tuesday.

Credit: KHOU

For those in the Florida Keys, tropical storm conditions are possible on Wednesday. It’s too soon to know what impacts, if any, will be felt along the northern Gulf Coast.

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Fortunately, the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm weakening as it moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The reason for this is cooler waters and high wind shear -- a result of the jet stream being farther south.

Credit: KHOU
Wind Shear Forecast

Still, Rafael could be an impactful storm for a portion of the Gulf Coast and will need to be monitored over the coming week.

While November is well past the peak of hurricane season, it’s not too rare to have a tropical storm or hurricane. According to data from the National Hurricane Center, there have been 125 tropical storms or hurricanes active in the Atlantic basin since 1861,

Credit: KHOU
Hurricane Season

KHOU 11 will track Rafael and will post any updates as the system develops.

    

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