HOUSTON — A disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that we've been watching for more than a week has strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton just hours after forming into Tropical Depression 14. The storm is expected to move to the east and impact Florida as a hurricane
Although Milton in the Gulf of Mexico is roughly 280 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX, all the global and hi-res models are in agreement in taking this one east, across the Gulf toward the western Florida coast. There is still a degree of uncertainty on exact landfall along the Florida coast.
Folks living in Florida need to take necessary safety measures regarding Milton. This is the second time Florida will be under threat of a landfalling hurricane within the past two weeks. Right now the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes Milton into the Tampa Bay Area as a category 3 storm on Wednesday. If this verifies, it will be the first time in over 100 years that the city has taken a direct hit from a hurricane.
Storm surge and wind in this scenario will be significant leading to widespread flooding and power outages that may last for days if not weeks. Folks in this area need to monitor this forecast carefully as the exact point of landfall will become clearer over the next few days. With less than 72 hours to go, residents need to start activating hurricane preparations and figuring out where they would go if told to evacuate.
For us in Texas, there is zero chance of this storm moving north into the Upper Texas Coast. The reason is a powerful fall front that will drop humidity and bring gorgeous weather to the area this week. That front will be responsible not only for deflecting Milton away from the Western Gulf, but also for steering it into Florida.