HOUSTON — Many factors impact the activity and intensity of hurricane season. One of them is the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
This pattern, discovered in 1971, is a region of both enhanced and suppressed lift resulting in enhanced or suppressed rainfall and storm development.
The pattern moves with its lifting and falling phase moving east around the globe over several weeks. Think of it as a rising or falling tide near the coast. A rising tide lifts the boats higher and a falling tide lowers the boats just as the enhanced phase of the MJO will enhance storm development while the suppression phase will reduce storm development.
When the lifting phase is over the Atlantic basin, statistics clearly show an enhancement in tropical storm development over the Atlantic.
When the wave propagates east and the suppression phase moves over the Atlantic, stats show a drop in tropical activity is likely.
Because the Madden-Julian Oscillation has a meaningful impact on our hurricane season, it is something KHOU 11 Chief Meteorologist David Paul follows closely every day.
To track it, we divide up the globe into eight zones with zones 8 and 1 representing the Atlantic basin. If the lifting phase moves there, it means increased storm number and strength is possible.
As of this writing on Tuesday, July 23, 2024, the active phase of the MJO was forecast to move into zones 5 and 6 over the next 10 days, keeping the active phase in the western Pacific Ocean and Indonesia.
It's a forecast we watch very carefully because if the active phase were to move into our zones in August and September, it could lead to an active second half of the hurricane season.
