HOUSTON — Rafael has become only the 8th hurricane (in the last 150 years) in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of November. Those same records also show that none of those past storms made landfall in Texas. It looks like Rafael will continue that historical trend, with its eventual landfall now most likely being in Mexico.
The National Hurricane Centers official forecast track takes the storm top the west, across the Gulf over the next few days. The storm is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend as it enters the western Gulf of Mexico, then, turn south into the southern Gulf as a very weak tropical storm by Monday of next week.
If this track verifies, the Houston/Galveston area will see no direct impacts from the storm as far as wind and rain are concerned. But, these storms, even hundreds of miles away, can and do send ripples and waves toward the coast, and Galveston will see some of these effects.
Expect seas and surf on the upper Texas coast to begin to increase on Friday and through the weekend. This means waves in the near shore waters could reach three to five inches or more. When we see wave action like this, rip currents become a real threat to swimmers of all abilities.
So, make sure to swim near lifeguard stands this weekend. Young children should be watched like a hawk and go no deeper than their ankles.
For boaters, offshore conditions will become rough with small craft advisories and tropical storm warnings already posted for the Gulf 20-50 miles offshore.