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Hurricane Milton tracker: Forecast cone, spaghetti models, watches and warnings

This is the second time Florida will be under threat of a landfalling hurricane within the past two weeks.

HOUSTON — Hurricane Milton is now a Category 4 strength in the Gulf of Mexico as it heads towards a Florida landfall.

With the 1 p.m. update, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it moved to the northeast at 16 mph.

The National Hurricane Center reports that Milton has grown in size as it moves closer to the west coast of Florida.

RELATED: No, Category 6 will not be added to the hurricane scale

Folks living in Florida need to take necessary safety measures regarding Milton. This is the second time Florida will be under threat of a landfalling hurricane within the past two weeks.

Right now, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes Milton into the Tampa Bay Area as a Category 4 storm on Wednesday evening. If this verifies, it will be the first time in over 100 years that the city has taken a direct hit from a hurricane.

Hurricane Milton spaghetti models

Credit: KHOU
With the 1 p.m. update, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it moved to the northeast at 16 mph.

When will Hurricane Milton make landfall?

Storm surge and wind in this scenario will be significant leading to widespread flooding and power outages that may last for days if not weeks. Folks in this area need to monitor this forecast carefully as the exact point of landfall will become clearer over the next day.  

Credit: KHOU
With the 1 p.m. update, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it moved to the northeast at 16 mph.

Hurricane Milton storm surge threat

Storm surge is going to have a major impact on Florida, regardless of strength. 

When a hurricane increases in intensity, a wall of water starts to build around the storm. Even if the storm weakens, that wall of water doesn't diminish. As a result, even though Milton is expected to make landfall as a weakening storm, the storm surge impacts will still be that of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. 

Credit: KHOU
When a hurricane increases in intensity, a wall of water starts to build around the storm.

With over 12 feet of seawater, inundation is expected in the areas hardest hit by the storm. As a result, evacuation orders are already underway.

RELATED: What to know about Hurricane Milton as it moves toward Florida's Gulf Coast

RELATED: Why is the Tampa Bay area especially vulnerable to hurricanes?

Hurricane Milton watches and warnings

According to the National Hurricane Center, here are the watches and warnings in effect for Hurricane Milton.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
  • Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

  • Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
  • Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

  • North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Dry Tortugas
  • Lake Okeechobee
  • Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
  • Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River
  • Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
  • Lake Okeechobee
  • Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
  • Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
  • Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
  • North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
  • Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina

What is a Storm Surge Warning?

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

What is a Hurricane Warning?

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

What is a Tropical Storm Warning?

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

What is a Storm Surge Watch?

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

What is a Hurricane Watch?

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

What is a Tropical Storm Watch?

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Will Hurricane Milton hit Texas?

For us in Texas, there is zero chance of this storm moving north into the Upper Texas Coast. The reason is a fall front that will drop humidity and bring gorgeous weather to the area this week. That front will be responsible not only for deflecting Milton away from the Western Gulf but also for steering it into Florida.

Credit: KHOU
Steering Currents For Milton

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