HOUSTON — After enduring a hot, dry, record-breaking summer, NOAA says this winter looks rainy. So what are the weather patterns suggesting that?
The big one you've heard us talk about is the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase that we're in, or ENSO. This tropical Pacific state points to warmer water in the eastern Pacific, which then leads to a more active hurricane season in the Pacific. So why does that have impacts on the winter season and more specifically impacts in the Gulf?
For the winter months, El Niño tends to push the polar jet further north into Canada and the southern tropical jet further north too, into the south. A tropical jet -- you guessed it -- brings in tropical moisture and that's where you get the increased likelihood of a wetter winter.
The more "mild" winters in this set up tend to favor the northern states. Because the polar jet sinks down less (since it's further north) the cold pool of air doesn't travel as far down into the U.S. Have family in the Dakotas? Or maybe the Great Lakes area? They're outlook is warmer and drier.
Temperature-wise, El Niño typically calls for cooler temps here in the Lone Star State. The NOAA outlook isn't jumping at that just yet. It's calling for neutral, or "average" winter cold.
Winter officially starts December 21 and the closer to that time frame, the better insight we'll have. For now, expect to have more umbrellas handy and the regular winter coats ready.