HOUSTON — A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey reveals Congressman Colin Allred holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
The survey took answers from 1,500 Texas registered voters between Jan. 11 and Jan. 24.
Allred leads the field with 40% of likely voters saying they would vote for him. State Senator Roland Gutierrez is a distant second with 12% of respondents saying Gutierrez is their preferred candidate. Meri Gomez earned 4% support and Mark Gonzalez 2% while all remaining candidates received 1% or zero support.
While Allred holds a significant lead over his rivals, 38% of those surveyed said they don’t know or are unsure who they intend to vote for in the primary.
“The real question will be, can Allred get to 50% plus one on March 5 and avoid a May runoff?” Mark Jones, a UH Hobby School of Public Affairs research associate and professor at Rice University, told KHOU 11. “Right now, I think Allred is very well positioned to win enough votes to avoid the runoff.”
In a hypothetical runoff between Allred and Gutierrez, 46% of those surveyed said they would vote for Allred, 26% for Gutierrez and 28% unsure.
“But Gutierrez still has a month to go and during that time could close the gap to at least force Allred into a runoff,” Jones said.
A socio-demographic breakdown of support in the survey showed Allred holding a majority of support among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as White (57%) or Black (54%), while Gutierrez held 41% support among Latinos to Allred’s 25%.
The survey also looked at the general election, where Senator Ted Cruz is the expected Republican candidate and is seeking a third term in office.
In that race, Cruz leads 48% to 39% against Allred, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown coming in with 4% support and 9% of those surveyed saying they are unsure. Against Gutierrez, Cruz holds a similar lead with 48% saying they would vote for the Republican incumbent and 38% saying they would vote for Gutierrez. 4% said they would vote for Libertarian Ted Brown and 10% said they were unsure.
Poll organizers said Cruz is well positioned to win a third term and point to current policy debates and hindering Democrats’ chances to topple the Republican candidate.
“One factor that's really helping Republican candidates and hurting Democratic candidates is immigration and border security,” Jones said. “Governor [Greg] Abbott's border security policies are popular with about three out of five voters, whereas only about one third oppose those policies.”
While experts believe Democrats benefit from higher turnout during a presidential election year, 2024 may provide a different challenge as the race for the White House is likely to be between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
“The difficulty for Texas Democrats is that they're saddled with a very unpopular Biden administration,” Jones said. “More than three out of five Texas likely voters have a negative opinion of President Biden, and they're also saddled with a Biden administration that is taking position on issues like border security, immigration and any cultural war issues that is against that, or at least contrary to that of a majority of Texas voters.”
Read the full survey report below: