HOUSTON — Election Day is now only six weeks away and the U.S. Senate race in Texas appears to have no clear leader. Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Congressman Colin Allred are locked in a tight race.
In the last month, there have been nine polls released on this race. All of them show Cruz leading anywhere from two to 10 points.
But, the "Morning Consult" poll released last week shows something that hasn't been seen this entire cycle -- Allred with a razor-thin lead over Cruz.
When you turn on your TV in Texas, you may just think you're in a battleground state. Cruz and Allred are both bombarding you with ads, both trying to paint the other as extreme.
"Money will be the difference maker here," said KHOU political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus.
There's plenty of that to go around. In the last two years, both campaigns have raised a combined $64 million. Cruz has spent more than $16 million since 2023. Allred outpaced that spending more than $27 million.
"Both sides are using the air war as part of their key strategy in terms of communicating to voters," said Rottinghaus.
Polls show a tightening race. Just last month, Cruz was up by 10 points in an ActiVote poll. Now, the most recent poll by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows Cruz up by three -- a virtual tie nearly within the poll's 2.83 margin of error.
"I think team Allred has to be happy where they are, if they're in striking distance with a month to go until Election Day, it gives them credibility," said Rottinghaus.
A closer-than-expected race is fueling concerns among some Republicans including Donald Trump's co-campaign manager who tweeted "What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas?"
"Voters want to like who they're voting for," said Rottinghaus.
Allred is exploiting Cruz's 50% unfavorable numbers. But his biggest challenge is that 30% of voters still don't know enough about him.
Rottinghaus said despite the polls, the odds remain in Cruz's favor.
"It will take a rare combination of things for Democrats to win in Texas," said Rottinghaus. "Really everything has to go right in order for Colin Allred to win."
The next big moment in the race is expected to be the only debate between Cruz and Allred. It's scheduled for Oct. 15 in Dallas. You'll be able to watch that on KHOU 11 at 7 p.m.