DALLAS — Only days before the election, Democratic consultant Matt Angle is sure of two things: Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred has a shot and it’s going to be a very, very close race.
“Let me tell you, if you care about the Senate race, regardless of what side you’re on, you need to vote in this election because it’s going to be close,” Angle told us on Inside Texas Politics.
Angle is the founder and director of the Lone Star Project, an organization that provides research, analysis and strategic communications to elect Texas Democrats.
He thinks Allred v. Cruz might even be closer than O’Rourke v. Cruz in 2018, which Cruz won by 2.5 points.
And he says the main reason is because Allred has made himself available to voters in the middle.
But Angle also acknowledges the fact that young voters didn’t show up as much during early voting as they did in 2020, and that could work against Democrats.
He says he isn’t worried, though.
“What you really want is the right geographic breakdown and the right racial breakdown of the vote. Things are leaning in that category towards a close race,” Angle argued. “For example, the five biggest counties in Texas, you want them to make up 40, 42% of the vote. They’re about at 38, 39%. So it’s building towards that ratio.”
On election day, Angle says he’ll be keeping a close eye on turnout, particularly in the big five urban counties.
Come election night, Angle will narrow his focus to three counties in particular.
“I’d look at Tarrant County. If Colin Allred’s at 52, 53%, that’s a really good number for him. I’d look at Harris County where Houston is. You want him to be in the high numbers, 50s over there, 57, 58. And here in Collin County, you want him right close to breaking even. If he’s 49, 50%, that means this is a really close race. It could come down to the last few thousand votes,” Angle told us.
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5.