TEXAS, USA — A new poll shows a likely path to victory for Donald Trump in Texas, but a tight battle in the race for U.S. Senate between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred.
The poll was conducted by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and surveyed 1,600 likely Texas voters.
Participants in the survey were given two scenarios for the presidential race: one where third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included on the ballot and one where he is not.
Kennedy has not yet secured a spot on the Texas ballot for November.
Without Kennedy, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 48% to 36%. With Kennedy on the ballot, Trump maintains a 12-point advantage over Biden, 46% to 34%, with Kennedy pulling in 9% support.
“Kennedy's vote effectively splits both up between Biden and Trump and his presence on the ballot or absence on the ballot really doesn't help or hurt either of the two major party candidates,” said Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute and one of the poll’s directors.
The race for U.S. Senate is a different story and the poll reveals a tighter race.
Republican incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead 46% to challenger Colin Allred’s 41%, with 9% saying they are still unsure who they will vote for in November.
Allred has found success in fundraising, pulling in more money at this stage of the campaign than Beto O’Rourke did during the same time in the last reelection campaign for Ted Cruz.
“This could be one of the most expensive senate races in the country,” Jones told KHOU 11 News.
Pollsters said Allred’s path to success likely includes distancing himself from the unpopularity of Joe Biden in Texas, while also embracing as much of a boost as he can from Democrats outside the state, who view the race against Ted Cruz as an opportunity to hold on to a majority in the U.S. Senate.
“For national Democrats, this is one of the only real races that is flappable,” Jones said. “We can expect to see a tremendous amount of national money pour into the Texas race.”