HOUSTON — With the first five days of early voting nearly wrapped up, millions of Texans have already cast their ballots, including hundreds of thousands of people in Harris County.
With more than 200,000 votes cast in Harris County, political experts are already picking up on some surprising trends.
"Turnout in Texas and in Harris County is down by about 25%," said political scientist Mark Jones with Rice University.
Through the first four days of early voting in Harris County, more than 232,000 people voted in person. At this time back in 2018, nearly 250,000 ballots had been cast.
"I look at the Democrats and they are concerned," said KHOU political analyst Bob Stein.
Stein said those warning signs are flashing bright in Harris County. He analyzed the first three days of early voting here and found nearly 60% of in-person early voters are over 55. And it's voters 65 to 80 years old turning out more than they did in 2018.
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"There isn't a big democratic advantage that we saw in 2020, 2018, and 2016," said Stein.
"Older voters are definitely dominating the turnout process," said Jones.
Republicans appear to be doing a better job getting out the vote in Harris County so far.
"What we're seeing with the results so far is higher enthusiasm and more turnout among Republicans," said Stein.
That could spell trouble for Beto O'Rourke and Democrats statewide.
"If Beto O'Rourke was counting on a hidden surge in younger voters and women voters, we're not seeing it thus far," said Jones.
If these trends continue in Harris County, Republicans could pull off big wins in a county that voted overwhelmingly Democrat the last three cycles.
It's why Governor Abbott was in the Houston area Thursday and why O'Rourke will be back this weekend.
"I suspect in Harris County we're going to have some really close outcomes," said Stein.
The fight to turn out the vote continues. What's clear is more than 70% of all ballots cast could be in by this time next week when early voting wraps up.