Will Ted Cruz lose his Senate seat to Democrat Beto O'Rourke?
It's possible, but O'Rourke will certainly have his work cut out for him.
Texas is a pretty Republican state, right?
It is, although a fair number of political observers assume it will probably lean more Democratic in the future due to demographic changes. But it's hard to know when that will happen. And in the meantime, the GOP has a firm grip on the older white voters that make up a large share of the Texas electorate.
So Ted Cruz is safe?
Maybe. On the one hand, he's running in a state that's still dominated by the GOP. On the other, Cruz isn't the most popular guy, with a February University of Texas poll showing that only 40 percent of voters approve of his performance, while 41 percent disapprove.
And despite winning the state by nine points in 2016, President Trump may not be so popular either; according to a January poll from Gallup, only 39 percent of Texans approved of the president, while 54 percent disapproved.
This would seem to indicate that O'Rourke, an El Paso-area congressman, has a shot at knocking off Cruz. And sure enough, a Quinnipiac poll from last weekfound their race was very close, with Cruz winning 47 percent to O'Rourke's 44 percent, which is within the margin of error.
Then O'Rourke has a chance?
Yes, there is a chance that Beto O'Rourke becomes the first Democrat to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate since 1993. But again, he'll have his work cut out for him.
How can O'Rourke win?
One way is to bet big on Democratic turnout while hoping that Republican turnout drops considerably. It's safe to assume that fewer people will vote in the midterms than in the 2016 general election, but if O'Rourke can get the vast majority of people who voted for Hillary Clinton last time, while Cruz gets a significantly smaller percentage of Mr. Trump's voters, then could be O'Rourke's path to victory. For example, if O'Rourke wins 80 percent of Clinton's votes, while Cruz only gets 60 percent of Mr. Trump's, then O'Rourke would win handily.
It's reminiscent of how Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won her seat in 2014 against Democrat Bruce Braley. President Obama had won Iowa in 2012, but his voters didn't turn out for Braley like Mitt Romney's did for Ernst. As a result, Ernst won in a landslide.
