HOUSTON — A new survey of Texas voters reveals Donald Trump’s GOP dominance continues while Joe Biden’s support from a key demographic is evaporating. On Tuesday, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the first of four reports on the 2024 election cycle.
The survey answers were recorded between Jan. 11 and Jan. 24, 2024. Both English and Spanish speakers were among the 1,500 respondents.
The first report was on Texas voters' intentions in the 2024 presidential election, Texans' opinions regarding the leading presidential candidates’ fitness to serve due to their advanced age, and favorability evaluations of leading national political figures among Texans. The margin of error was +/- 2.5%.
With Super Tuesday five weeks away, the survey examined the Republican Presidential Primary race and likely voters’ preferred choice between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Eighty percent of likely GOP primary voters said Trump was their preferred choice, while only 19% said Haley would have their vote. Only 1% said they were undecided.
“The fact that Trump would easily defeat Haley was not a surprise,” said Mark Jones, a UH Hobby School of Public Affairs research associate and professor at Rice University. “The margin of 61 percentage points, that was a little surprising, that Trump's support among Texas Republicans is overwhelming.”
Haley’s only significant support came from voters who identified as college-educated, not born-again Christian or independent.
The results point to Trump’s probable victory of the GOP nomination and a rematch against President Joe Biden.
In that head-to-head matchup, 49% of likely voters said they would vote for Trump, while 40% said they would vote for Biden. That would mark an extension of Trump’s margin of victory in 2020 in Texas.
Pollsters point to more struggles for Biden with one key demographic.
“[Biden] has a problem with Latino Democrats who are much less likely to vote for him than white Democrats or African-American Democrats,” Jones said in an interview. “And he also has trouble among general election Latinos who are slightly favoring Donald Trump, whereas in 2020, Biden won them by about 17 points.”
An answer to that result is found deeper in the survey, which found strong support among Latinos for Gov. Greg Abbott’s policies on immigration as well as abortion – where Biden is at odds with the Republican governor.
“Many of the positions that [Biden] criticizes, such as Gov. Abbott's border security policies or Texas's abortion legislation, are supported either by a majority of Latino voters or a large plurality of Latino voters,” Jones said.
Another issue that has dominated the campaign is age.
Seventy-two percent of voters believe 81-year-old Biden is too old to serve a second term in office, while 40% believe 77-year-old Trump is too old for another four years in the White House.
Here's a look at some numbers UH compiled regarding Texas voters.
Presidential election results
- 49% of likely Texas voters intend to vote for Donald Trump and 40% for Joe Biden in the presidential election, with the remainder supporting third-party candidates (4%) or unsure (7%).
- Trump holds a significant lead over Biden among men (53% to 38%) while the two are effectively tied among women (44% to 43%).
- 72% of registered voters believe Biden is too old to effectively serve another term.
- 40% of registered voters believe Trump is too old to effectively serve another term.
- 57% of white likely voters intend to vote for Trump and 33% for Biden.
- 47% of Latino likely voters intend to vote for Trump and 41% for Biden.
- 77% of Black likely voters intend to vote for Biden and 14% for Trump.
- 48% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 51% have an unfavorable opinion.
- 39% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Biden and 59% have an unfavorable opinion.
- 38% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris and 59% have an unfavorable opinion.
- 36% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Nikki Haley and 50% have an unfavorable opinion.
Republican primary results
Trump holds a more than 60% point lead over Haley -- 80% to 19% -- in the Texas Republican primary election.
40% of likely GOP primary voters report they would never vote for Haley and 13% report that they would never vote for Trump.
Democratic primary results
Biden holds a more than 65% point lead over Marianne Williamson -- 72% to 5%, with 17% of likely voters undecided -- in the Texas Democratic presidential primary election.
55% of Latino likely Democratic primary voters say that if the election were held today they would vote for Biden, compared to 78% of white and 79% of Black likely voters.
Read the entire survey below.