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Why could lipstick sales tell us if we are headed into a recession?

The “lipstick index” can be an indicator to economists of trouble ahead.

HOUSTON — When it comes to the economy, we are used to seeing the experts talk about things like unemployment, inflation and consumer confidence. But there is another - not quite as scientific - indicator that economists keep an eye on: Lipstick sales.

The thinking behind it is when people need to cut back on spending and cut out luxuries they often look for smaller purchases that make them feel better. One of those so-called feel good products is lipstick.

According to the Washington Post, the chairman of Estee Lauder was the first person to point out the correlation. The company noticed in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, lipstick sales saw a huge bump. They even had to run extra shifts in their factory to keep up with demand. What followed was a major recession. 

Nicknamed the “lipstick index,” looking back, experts noticed the same phenomenon in 1929 when the Great Depression hit.

Lipstick is not the only indicator. Former Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan told NPR in 2008 that he looked at men’s underwear sales. As the nation fell into recession after the housing bubble burst, Greenspan said men were buying less underwear - instead focusing only on clothing people could see.

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