HOUSTON — We have reached the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and not only are there three active hurricanes in the Atlantic but now we're monitoring a robust tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean Sea that may become the season's next named storm.

First, lets talk Florence.

Latest on Florence

This hurricane as of 11 am CST has now reached category 4 strength with winds of 130 mph. A hurricane watch and a storm surge watch will likely be issued for a portion of the east coast by Tuesday morning.

For those who have family or friends along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts, call them and urge them to be rushing their hurricane preparations to completion.

This will very likely be a historic hurricane for that area.

The wind alone could be devastating but the storm surge that will accompany such a large and powerful storm will swamp many coastal communities. All folks living in these areas should listen to local authorities and evacuate if told to do so.

As of this entry, mandatory evacuations are already underway in portions of Dane County, NC along with several other coastal communities. These evacuations will likely expand in territory as we get into Tuesday.

Potential Gulf System

A formidable tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean Sea continues to move towards the Yucatan peninsula and should emerge in the gulf by Tuesday.

Currently the National Hurricane Center has given this a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days as it pushes into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

While model support for the development of this system is limited, we are at the peak of the season and as we've seen time and time again, it doesn't take long for systems in the gulf to spin up quickly.

The 8 a.m. update from the NHC had this to say:

"Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Cuba are associated with a weak surface trough. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula over that time. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system moves across the western Gulf of Mexico."

Regardless of development, very heavy rain will likely affect a portion of the northern Mexican or Texas coast by the end of the week into the weekend.

There are still more questions than answers currently so just stay tuned to the forecast and we'll let you know as soon as we do.

Heavy Rain Threat

We remain in a very wet, tropical environment over southeast Texas and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. The grounds are becoming more and more saturated thanks to the 1 to 2 inches of rain we've seen in many locations each afternoon the last week or so. Because of the heavy tropical downpours, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the southern two-thirds of the area.

We're carefully watching how saturated our area becomes in advance of this tropical wave. A stalled out frontal system and a developing area of low pressure--- or mesoscale convective vortex--- just to the west of us could set the stage for 3-6 inches of rain through the I-10 corridor with isolated amounts higher than that. That coupled any tropical wave or storm, the risk of excessive rainfall is increased and flooding could become an issue as we get into the weekend.

I would ask that you please follow me on twitter for all the latest developments regarding this evolving tropical weather situation. You can do so by clicking HERE.