HOUSTON — KHOU 11 Meteorologists, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service are closely monitoring a tropical wave over the Turks and Caicos islands that could become the next named system in the Gulf this coming week.
WHAT WE KNOW:
The National Hurricane Center, as of 1 p.m. Sunday, has given this a 90-percent chance of developing into a named system over the next five days. The system is expected to move over near 90-degree Fahrenheit waters of the eastern Gulf by early next week.
The Hurricane Hunters are preparing to fly a reconnaissance mission into the system on Labor Day if necessary.
All areas from Mississippi to Texas need to be monitoring this system very closely as it heads in the general direction of the northeast and central Gulf of Mexico.
If this system were to develop, it likely won't happen quickly due to unfavorable conditions in the vicinity of the disturbance east of Florida.
Looking at the map above, you see a lot of red contour lines ahead of the disturbance. That is high wind shear that is currently disrupting any sort of formation that's trying to get going. Unfortunately, this shear is forecast to relax over the coming days. As the shear relaxes, the environment in which it's embedded will become more favorable for tropical development.
THE MODELS:
There is fairly good consistency in the models showing a possible organized area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf by Monday evening. The GFS and Euro (along with others) are all consistent with this idea.
The models diverge significantly after Wednesday. The GFS model keeps a very weak tropical depression, maybe a tropical storm, east of Houston making a landfall near New Orleans around midnight Wednesday. The left over energy and moisture moves into central Louisiana 3and is quickly picked up and ejected to the north and east away from Texas by an approaching front. This is the best case scenario for Houston.
The European model, long championed as one of the better models, takes a healthy tropical storm into southeast Louisiana very early Wednesday morning, south of New Orleans. Upon landfall, the systems path is blocked by a building area of high pressure to the north and the remnants of that system would then move along the coast towards southeast Texas with the center of whatever remains parked over Houston very early Friday morning, pre dawn. The system is still in the area all the way through Sunday morning before moving southwest towards Laredo on Tuesday morning.
Obviously this is not a good scenario for our area and one that could spell issues with rainfall. It's simply too soon to say how much rain our area could get but something that will have to be monitored very carefully. More on this in the days ahead.
Finally, the Canadian model, a not-so-reliable model shows a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane impacting the Sabine River (Texas/Louisiana state line) early afternoon on Wednesday before being picked up by a front and racing out of here.
Those are three very different scenarios for one system that hasn't even developed yet.
MOST IMPORTANTLY:
It's too early to know details of when, where, how much and how strong. Just simply too early and everything listed above under "the models" will continue to change in every detail. It will be important to download the KHOU weather app and monitor KHOU and khou.com for the very latest information regarding this developing weather situation.
It seems "word is getting out" that something may develop and erroneous and misleading social media posts will begin to appear online. Please consult with the National Hurricane Center or the local National Weather Service office here in Houston for any details regarding increasing rain chances this coming week.
FINALLY:
A tropical wave currently located south of Louisiana will likely bring heavy rain into our area on Sunday and into Monday especially. The National Weather Service here in Houston may issue a flood watch for Monday due to the possibility of very heavy rainfall. Definitely have a plan B for any Labor Day BBQ's that are planned.
