HOUSTON — If you want to take advantage of early voting for the runoff election, Tuesday is the last day to do it. The biggest race for Houston will be deciding the next mayor. It'll come down to turnout and advertising.
In 2019, the last mayoral runoff, just over 115,000 voters cast their ballots early. This year, with only Tuesday to go, more than 107,000 have already voted early. It's down and that, pundits said, is better news for John Whitmire.
"John Whitmire likes a low turnout election," KHOU political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus said. "He wants to be able to sit on his lead."
As the mayoral race enters its final days, to win, Sheila Jackson Lee will have to boost turnout and come from behind.
"She's looking for an October surprise. She's looking for some kind of major hit that's going to hurt him," Rottinghaus said. "That's hard to see in the last couple of days, but in politics, anything can happen."
Whitmire has led in polling for months. He beat Jackson Lee by 7 points in November but failed to hit 50% on Election Day, sending both candidates to the runoff.
Now, it's a money race. Again, advantage Whitmire.
"It's hard to raise money when you're losing," Rottinghaus said. "If the perception is you're not going to win the race, you're not going to raise the money."
In campaign finance reports obtained by KHOU 11 News, last month, Jackson Lee raised nearly $500,000. Whitmire more than tripled her with nearly $1.8 million.
Jackson Lee spent $340,000 in that time, much of that on TV ads, while Whitmire's campaign poured more than $2 million into advertising.
Those ads are now fighting for your attention at home this week.
"This is a race that hasn't lit voters on fire, it hasn't excited voters," Rottinghaus said. "Turnout has been flat. This race hasn't been about ideology. It hasn't been about issues. It's been about mobilization."
Whether or not the candidates can change that in five days will ultimately decide who will take over at City Hall come Jan. 1.